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What are we going to do about the COVID-2X and COVID-3X World wide Pandemics?

The big question is how society is going to change as multiple waves of COVID-19 and new viruses appear over the next 20 years.


Business models supporting sharing of physical objects appear to be in jeopardy (example "ride sharing" transportation). 


Peter Brooks MIET

Palm Bay Florida USA
  • Many apologies to you Peter, I misread your posting and now realise that you are in Central Florida and not California. I have edited my previous script accordingly. Nevertheless, your comment about the need for some protection from the adverse weather in Florida, is perhaps another good reason for the development of lightweight BEVs to address my concerns about the waste of valuable and sometimes scarce, electrical power, when, for example, a 1600 kg platform (BEV) is used to transport just one or two 80Kg people to work, or the local supermarket, shopping mall etc with a payload to total mass 'efficiency' of barely 5 to 10%, when a pedal assisted electric bike boasts a payload efficiency of typically 75%. I like the fact that electric golf carts are allowed on some of the (low speed) public roads - maybe their use will 'catch on' - let's hope so.
  • Hello Malcolm


     Regarding using transportation for going to the local supermarket or shopping mails.


    Since the start of the pandemic we (my wife and I) only visit the supermarket(s) once a week at 7 am (wearing masks).


    We end up with 4-5 large Sainsbury's shopping bags full of stuff and a cooler full of frozen foods. A hot wired bicycle will not work.


    For shopping mails, they are effectively "dead", as the stores are not stocking products we are looking for. We are now ordering everything else we need from Amazon - it is a lot cheaper. 


    Peter Brooks MIET

    Palm Bay Florida USA




  • In/Adequacy of Bicycles as an Alternative to Cars

    Thanks for the clarification Peter, I fully appreciate the inadequacy of bicycles for shopping trips, with maybe just a wicker shopping basket on the handlebars or a pair of rear rack-mounted panniers to carry all your food and supplies, when you do a large shop once a week. My wife and I, both now retired, have also tried to limit our food shopping trips to once a week since the Covid-19 ‘Lock down’ here in UK, choosing to shop at quieter times initially, in March/April, but now with the wearing of masks being compulsory, in all stores, we have found no crowding at any time in our local supermarkets. Fortunately our local Sainsbury's is within walking distance, which is fine in good weather, but frequently involves walking less than 1 to 2 metres besides lines of near stationary/gridlocked traffic in what is a built up area. My wife typically steers me 'all around the houses' to avoid the heavy traffic congestion and fumes, if we need to walk further to our local bank branch or alternative food shopping venues. Even then, we cannot avoid commenting on how many of the cars have only the driver in and often wonder why we see so few other pedestrians or cyclists. It's simply human nature I guess and a natural reaction to the easing of travel restrictions. One of our weekly 'treats' is to cycle about 4 miles to our favourite Italian ice cream shop near an ancient fishing village on the Thames Estuary, and then return via a deli styled super market, on the way home. Simple pleasures in challenging times!

    Reduced Car Use during the Pandemic

    We do have a car (a 5 door hatchback, 4 metres in length and approx 1140 kg curb weight) and have recently begun to use it to visit our relatives, for a day in the garden with them, some 50 miles away in North Essex and it is always interesting to see how much better the cumulative indicated fuel economy is (e.g. 64 mpg) on this 'longish' run and return journey, than if the car is used solely for local short journeys. (45mpg). The accuracy of these figures has been validated by proper 'brim to brim' measurements. I must admit that a small electric car would also suffice for these journeys.

    What will the New Normal Trends Be ?

    It remains to be seen whether there will be widespread permanent adoption of 'remote working' and less traffic on the roads as the course of the Pandemic reveals itself. So far the indications are not good as far as traffic density and congestion is concerned. Additionally, our Prime Minister is urging every one to 'get back to work' as the Governments' Furlough Payments Scheme of 80% salary come to an end from 1st October 2020 and as all our children all go back to school.



     



    It rather looks as though my personal 'dream' of a brave new world with at least 40% of workers working remotely, not commuting for an hour each way in their motor cars, cycling to work, getting healthy, 40% less traffic pollution and large corporations setting up fully equipped, air conditioned, remote working ‘communications hubs’ in rural centres, to facilitate the above, is not going to be kick started, not even by the advent of Covid-19. So I am off to my drawing board now, to try to sketch out a design for a lightweight, two seater, weather protected, battery electric car, and to attempt to estimate what the benefits of such might be. Maybe I should action the latter before the former!


  • Hello Malcolm:


    The lobby in the local banks are not open for "walk in" service, you have to use the outside "drive through". One has to make an appointment to use the safety deposit boxes inside the bank.

     

    We typically get 25 mpg around town and 30 mpg on longer trips. Don't forget that is in "US gallons" not the larger "Imperial gallons". The current gas price is about $2.03/US gallon, thanks to the pandemic. 


    The pandemic has messed up my future transportation plans. In the next 5 years I wanted to be able to call for a "point-to-point" self driving electric car for my local shopping, and get rid of one car. That has effectively been killed unless they come up with a way of sterilizing the car after each passenger trip.


    Regarding air conditioning, all working locations, shops, houses and cars must have it here in Florida. With climate change most of the UK will also require it in the future  


    Peter Brooks MIET

    Palm Bay Florida USA






  • Malcolm Davies:

     


     

    So I am off to my drawing board now, to try to sketch out a design for a lightweight, two seater, weather protected, battery electric car, and to attempt to estimate what the benefits of such might be.


       


    It's called a Renault Twizy.  You can already buy it.  There was one on the cover of E&T magazine August/September 2020.


  • Good morning:


    I had to look up details of the Renault Twizy as I have never seen one up close. They may not be sold in the US.


    Seems the batteries are not included in the purchase price. You have to lease them for about 45 pound per month.


    The standard model does not have doors and the maximum speed is about 45 mph and the range is about 50 miles. It is effectively a 4 wheel covered electric motorcycle. The information said that  because of the external body you don't have to wear a helmet.


    Just as a piece of information when you drive a motorcycle in Florida you do not have to wear a helmet. A few years ago when I visited a Florida heart transplant hospital  I was told that they get a lot of donor hearts from people who had accidents when driving motorcycles. 


    Peter Brooks MIET

    Palm Bay Florida USA
  • Good afternoon:-

    Canyon reveals Bike-Car Hybrid concept vehicle:


    See details at the attached URL:-

    https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/canyon-bike-cycling-car-concept-vehicle-new-ebike-a9698306.html


    Peter Brooks MIET

    Palm Bay Florida USA
  • Peter Brooks:

    Good morning:


    I had to look up details of the Renault Twizy as I have never seen one up close. They may not be sold in the US.


    Seems the batteries are not included in the purchase price. You have to lease them for about 45 pound per month.


    The standard model does not have doors and the maximum speed is about 45 mph and the range is about 50 miles. It is effectively a 4 wheel covered electric motorcycle. The information said that  because of the external body you don't have to wear a helmet.


    Just as a piece of information when you drive a motorcycle in Florida you do not have to wear a helmet. A few years ago when I visited a Florida heart transplant hospital  I was told that they get a lot of donor hearts from people who had accidents when driving motorcycles. 


    Peter Brooks MIET

    Palm Bay Florida USA


    Renault have now abandoned their battery leasing, as it was so unpopular.  It made little difference to anybody leasing a car, or buying on credit, but it substantially depressed the value on the used car market.  The doors are an optional extra.  If you want windows in the doors, that's another optional extra.


    In France, they are treated like mopeds and teenagers can drive them.  Here in the UK, you need a full car licence.  I have seen one or two, but they are quite rare in this country.


  • Thank you both Peter and Simon, I knew about the Renault Twizy, introduced to the UK in 2012 and I had dismissed it as little more than a failed 'concept car'. However it is still on sale in the UK, priced at £11,540 including the 'flip up' side doors. It is indeed classed as a Quadricycle and so does not qualify for the UK Government 25% discount (up to £3000) 'plug-in electric car' grant. When, at the time of writing, you can still buy a 'proper small car', admittedly a rather basic one, namely a Dacia Sandero, 5 door hatchback (with a 75 bhp, 999cc Renault engine) for as little as £6,995 - not many customers are going to opt for the £11,540 Renault Twizy.


    I think this just goes to show that we have to pay a very heavy premium for any conventional 'heavy' battery electric vehicle - presumably due to the costly high technology 'electrics' necessary to realise anything like a practical electric car. Taking the MRRP of two Small 5 door hatchbacks (one ICE and one BEV) with similar engine powers and identical 0 to 60 mph times of around 12 seconds, namely the Renault Clio Play TCe 100 (100 PS) at £15,995 and the Renault Zoe Play Z.E 50/R110 (110 PS) at £26,495 + £3,000 = £29,495 we have a MRRP ratio of BEV/ICE = 1.84. Thus there is an 84% premium to pay for the Zoe.


    The Canyon Bikes 'concept pedal car' is very interesting and certainly more likely to attract a more reasonable selling price than the Renault Twizy. Let's be honest, it is not until you 'return to cycling', on a 'push bike' that you appreciate how much you need to use all those gears and how much your average journey speed is governed/limited by the gravitational impact of uphill gradients on your total mass (bike plus rider) and wind resistance increasing as the square of your speed on the level or on down grades. For over a century, we have been 'spoiled rotten' by our lovely fossil fuelled motor cars. Maybe it is now time to take the lead that Covid-19 has shown us and adopt a radical change of direction, if we are to succeed in 'greening' the planet.

     


  • Hello Malcolm:


    I came across this article in today's JAMA about Electric scooter accidents in the USA over the past couple of years. It shows the rapid increase in head injuries. 

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2770043?utm_source=silverchair&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_alert-jamanetworkopen&utm_content=mthlyforyou&utm_term=090620


    As I indicted in one of my earlier posts I am very concerned about safety (or lack of) in one's chosen transportation system.


    In my care free youth in the London I had a 1954 NSU Electric Start Scooter (based on the Lambreta) which I used to get to work using the Great West Road.


    The big safety problem during winter time was "black ice" on the road.


    Peter Brooks MIET

    Palm Bay Florida USA