whjohnson:

Quite why such a fuss is being made about this particular one escapes me - it just makes me ask the question - what are they not telling us? And just where has it really originated from and how?

Trump did it, blamed the Chinese  - and then denied it (obvs)


It's turned up at just about the right time to be blamed for a significant global economic downturn, so it was definitely Trump


Still, look on the bright side, if it was made in China, it probably won't last too long


Regards


OMS



 

"Still, look on the bright side, if it was made in China, it probably won't last too long" ?


At end of the day COVID-19 is not a particularly virulent ILI compared to the 'Fab Four' (A(H1N1)PDM09, A(H3N2), B/YAMAGATA and B/VICTORIA) that we have to deal with every year and causes thousands of deaths especially among the elderly and those with underlying health problems, 99.9% of people who have been tested for COVID-19 some have reported symptoms like headaches, slight fever and sore throat for a few days basically the similar symptoms that we get from a common cold, but a common cold can kill some people, the problem here is that this virus is highly contagious and by its very nature can put a big strain on the economy, health services and industry where masses of people are off sick at any one time, luckily we have managed to control the big four either with the Trivalent vaccine or medication to minimise its contagiousness and impact on people, once the scientists find that magic 'Genome' then we can add it to the list of the annual ILI's we endure every year unless Trump gets in there first and buys it for his people.


I was asked why is four weeks self isolation so important, well for us in the Northern Hemisphere the ILI season lasts from week 44 to week 16, at moment we are in week 12 so I think trhis is probably the best policy at the moment to sit it out and allow peoples immune systems to develop combined with the fact nature will probably play its part, I know you have doom pundits screaming for some sort of marshal law, lockdowns and quarantine areas with checkpoints and trigger happy squaddies, but we should avoid this sort of approach as experience has shown us in places like Africa these sort of conditions create ghettos where a virus can get out of control and mutate, not to mention the extreme social unrest when people are denied everyday essentials and attempting to leave the area for fear of being shot.


At the end of the day a ILI or virus is a living organism and like everything living it is difficult to eradicate and will adapt, the best we can do is control its impact. whilst the scientists are working hard to ease the pressure on society and the economy we owe it to ourselves to play our part to limit our exposure and the usual hygiene rules.


The human race will adapt to this latest threat, we have been doing it for thousands of years, no worries.


Rob

I hope that the outcome to the present crisis is better than that shown in the post apocalyptic film "Aftermath", starring C.J. Thomason and others. Or that other gem, "The Road."

I'm sure Boris's knowledge of Greek and other classic civilsation is no more use than my physics

I think both are of use. Ask yourself why classics was used as a basis of accademic educational training in the past. Perhaps simply put ' What has been is what will be, and what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun'. - Ecclesiastes 1:9

So through history we learn from other peoples follies and eperiences.

Now on a lighter note, the Black death, Bubonic and more to the point, the Pneumonic plagues terrified and reduced the population by a quarter each time they appeared, that would be 22 million in todays money.

So how ever much of humanity gets culled it always springs back with new growth .......

 I personally would keep as many contracts going as possible, only sit on your backside if you've been struck down or you have dependants to look after.

Legh

Keep calm and carry on!


It's all about balancing the risks against the cost - social and mental, not just financial


In UK we currently have about 2000 confirmed cases i.e. poorly people. The doubling time is about 2.7 days, or put another way, the increase has been an order of magnitude every 9 days or so (Log₁₀ 2 = 0.3, x 9 = 2.7). So if the rate of exponential growth does not change (it hasn't convincingly done so yet) we will have 1,000,000 cases on or about Good Friday (10 April, 24 days from now). You can multiply by 2, 3, or whatever to include the mild cases. If 10% of the poorly people need ITU, you can see that NHS will not cope, so the aim is to slow down the spread, particularly amongst those at greatest risk.


The risk of picking up an infection is currently low, but unless anything dramatic happens, I can see closures on a continental scale after a couple of weekends from now.


I feel sorry for flight crews, cooks and waiters, and the owners of the businesses. For many people, no work - no pay. So I think that it is reasonable to work for the next 10 days or so. Clearly not if you catch a cold, or if your clients are unwell.


Mrs P falls into the vulnerable category. The only room which we both have to use is the kitchen, but I find it inconceivable that I could catch Covid19 and not pass it on to her. In any event, as pointed out above, the frail population will have to emerge at some stage. As far as I can tell, there is no expectation that they will be spared - it's just that there will be enough ITU beds to go around. If we are very very lucky, a vaccine may be developed in the mean time.

My current view/hope is our NHS heroes will do there best and just about cope. Science and engineering will rise to the challenge and provide the NHS with whatever they need.


For ventilators read Spitfires for the Battle of Britain where industry rose to the challenge and components were made in garden workshops and small company workshops and assembled in car factories and flown to the airfields by civilians. When there were not enough pilots due to losses we copied the Germans and trained the newly formed Air Training Corps to fly gliders to feed in RAF for aircrew. 


I read on the internet today the first person in the USA to be given an injection of a CV vaccine as the start of a trial with more to follow. Appently trials to ensure the vaccine is effective and safe take about a year. Research is going on throughout the world and the boffins are sharing research information with surprisingly the Chinese providing the genetic sequence of the virus. 


With the co-ordinated power of all the medics, scientists and engineers from around the world I am sure this threat can be beaten. If the politicians and bean counters don't get in the way and follow the guidance of the great man, " give us the tools and we will finish the job" we will win the war!

There is a danger of believing these suggested possible worst case figures will actually happen. The BBC and ITV are both in total panic mode, and one needs to be very careful of exaggeration as this is very bad for peoples mental health. This danger cannot be under estimated. Twelve or more weeks of total isolation, apart from TV rubbish, is likely to have very severe effects for a long time to come particularly on those already unwell or vulnerable medically. I suggest a few good discussions about other things on the IET websites are an excellent medicine!

Agreed.

I am always suspicious of computer-modeled outcomes - especially if there is a political motive behind the message they are intended to convey. You only have to look  at some of the climate change 'models' put out there for evidence of this.

There seem to be a lot of mixed messages out there right now - full self-isolation, but it is ok to go outside and walk your dog in public for example -