I've only just caught up with this brilliant video from the Ohio dept of health...social distancing explained with ping pong balls and mousetraps!
https://twitter.com/OHdeptofhealth/status/1248249304600449024


Cheers,


Andy

Very good, though rather reminiscent of one I remember from years ago to explain nuclear chain reactions. I suppose there is a link with the similarity in the number of fatalities.

Alasdair

Just checked through all your replies and noticed that the my critical reply about the Diamond Princess cruise ship is missing.  https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w          There were about 2700 passengers and 1000 crew when the covid19  virus; in Hong Kong a check on one person proved positive meaning that all passengers with no distancing or protection, sharing same rooms, food had been mingling together for a week at least, in an open bubble of 3711 people a statistical isolated island community.

So on the website https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  search down the nations list and find the ship.  Diamond Princess.  

So out of the 3700 infected only 711 developed symptoms of which 61+7 were serious active cases that needed ventilators of mostly elderly passengers  of which 12 died.  

So deaths due to COVID19 are about 30 in 10,000 of which 90% will be over retiring age and not 3.4% nonsense from WHO. More like 3 in 10,000. which NHS can easily manage.  What do you think?

So deaths due to COVID19 are about 30 in 10,000 of which 90% will be over retiring age and not 3.4% nonsense from WHO. More like 3 in 10,000. which NHS can easily manage.  What do you think?

I think you're making a lot of assumptions to come to the conclusion you want to see.

One of the big assumptions is that everyone on board the ship was infected and only 711 showed symptoms, but the reality is that they tested nearly everyone but only 712 were infected. With an understanding of how people mingle on a cruise ship and how quickly they were put in isolation then this figure seems about right to me. This means that your death rate needs to increase by a factor of about 5 or 6.

The idea that 90% of deaths will be over retirement age is also not supported by the statistics. In Scotland which has just published details of deaths from Covid-19 up to 12 April more than 30% of deaths have been of people aged below 65.

Alasdair

As far I can tell, as a past asthmatic and having a mild heart condition my chances of dying from covid 10 if I catch it in the next year are somewhere between 1 in 5 and 1 in 20. (And I'm actually reasonably fit and below retirement age.)


To put this into perspective, my odds of dying as a passenger on the UK rail network last year were somewhere in the order of 1 in 10,000,000. But because those odds are seen as unacceptable in UK society myself and my colleagues are kept very fully employed trying to improve them. 


We are at an extraordinarily high level of risk at present. Just because most of us in the UK haven't seen levels of risk anywhere near approaching this magnitude in our lifetime doesn't stop it being real.


Bottom line: WITH the restrictions in place we have seen DOUBLE the usual death rate in the UK this month. I hate to think where that would have been if they hadn't been in place.


 Andy

Andy you should self isolate immediately and pray that a vaccine is available quickly as advised in my third reply below....     "

  "Let God decide who lives and who dies and pray that panicking politicians will do what is for the common good of the nation."

To keep the life of the nation ticking over we need to give priority to the use the ventilators for those most critical to the economy such as young sewage workers, health care workers etc but not cause great stress and hardships by closing down everything; thus increasing unemployment resulting in financial instability and rampant inflation.

But do please keep away from crowds and the over 70's as they will be low on the list for the use of NHS ventilators if they get covid19 which is why they will most probably choose to self isolate.

•  

The point is, I'm not unusual. I'm at no more risk than a very large percentage of users of this forum. Which is why the current measures are in place. So that's sorted then.


For advice on wire sizing, protective measures and earthing arrangements for electrical installations I suggest we look to IET members. For advice on preventing the spread of an epidemic I suggest we look to epidemiologists. It is as dangerous for us to give advice on covid-19 measures as it is for an epidemiologist to give advice on house wiring based on their GCSE Physics.


HOW we continue to work in the lockdown situation is of course a perfectly reasonable subject for debate!


Andy

Well, the major outbreak is nearly finished but we will still get little peaks as cities and care homes become infected. But governments must prioritise in doing what is for the common good and support the economy so our standard of living is maintained.  Study the government statistics as follows :-  

The Office of National Statistics issues figures for deaths in the UK.   These show that in March this year 49,723 people died.   The number that died in March 2019 was only 43,946 so we can see that some 6,000 extra people died presumably of the Covid19 virus during last month or about 200 per day.  Assuming the average stay for Covid19 patients could be around a week for people under retirement age as typified by  the PM

NHS sitrep report shows the number of available Intensive care beds in UK for February was 4,122 of which 3,359 were occupied leaving 763 spare which would be sufficient if the government issues an edit stating that people over retirement age should self isolate, as if they fall ill there is no guarantee that a ICU bed will be available as NHS have been instructed to prioritise ICU beds for young and working age patients.  So it looks like the Nightingale beds may never need to be used if a vaccine becomes available quickly. 

Thus, the children and working population can return to work but maintain social distancing.  To stop overcrowding in the rush hour only shops, businesses and factories that are prepared to adopt a 2 shift system should be allowed to open in town/city centres.  By adopting a shift system of 7am to 2pm and 1pm to  8pm we can split the travel peak into 3 parts but probably still insist on the wearing of a mask where passengers are within a metre of someone else,

Well its nearly finished as we will still get little peaks as cities and care homes become infected. But governments must prioritise in doing what is for the common good and support the economy so our standard of living is maintained.  Study the government statistics as follows :-  

The Office of National Statistics issues figures for deaths in the UK.   These show that in March this year 49,723 people died.   The number that died in March 2019 was only 43,946 so we can see that some 6,000 extra people died presumably of the Covid19 virus during last month or about 200 per day.  Assuming the average stay for Covid19 patients could be around a week for people under retirement age as typified by  the PM

NHS sitrep report shows the number of available Intensive care beds in UK for February was 4,122 of which 3,359 were occupied leaving 763 spare which would be sufficient if the government issues an edit stating that people over retirement age should self isolate, as if they fall ill there is no guarantee that a ICU bed will be available as NHS have been instructed to prioritise ICU beds for young and working age patients.  So it looks like the Nightingale beds may never need to be used if a vaccine becomes available quickly. 

Thus, the children and working population can return to work but maintain social distancing.  To stop overcrowding in the rush hour only shops, businesses and factories that are prepared to adopt a 2 shift system should be allowed to open in town/city centres.  By adopting a shift system of 7am to 2pm and 1pm to  8pm we can split the travel peak into 3 parts but probably still insist on the wearing of a mask where passengers are within a metre of someone else,