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Power networks could struggle by 2030 under soaring electric vehicle popularity ET

There is a lot written regarding the replacement of fossil fuelled (petrol and diesel) cars with electric cars. Some suggest it is easy, others suggest it is impossible. I decided to look briefly at the electricity requirements required to do this (This is based on Germany but I would expect the figures would be similar for the UK).

First step how much petrol and diesel is currently used?

From the IEA
www.iea.org/.../GermanyOSS.pdf
Germany petrol and diesel consumption 2010-2011.
Petrol 450 000 barrels per day
Diesel 1050 000 barrels per day

As a cross check on the total consumption:
world.bymap.org/OilConsumption.html
Total consumption petroleum consumption for Germany 2015
2 372 000 barrels per day

Next step what is the electrical energy equivalent of 1 barrel of Petrol/Diesel? From a couple of sources:

peakoil.com/.../how-much-energy-is-there-in-a-barrel-of-oil
1 barrel (crude) is 1,700 kilowatt hours 

letthesunwork.com/.../barrelofenergy.htm
A barrel of oil contains about six gigajoules of energy. That’s six billion joules or 1667 kilowatt-hours

If we take 1.7 MWh per barrel for petrol annual automotive energy input is:
Petrol 765 000 MWh per day= 765 GWh per day = 279 000 GWh = 279 TWh

Assuming an efficiency of 20% for a petrol vehicle the energy required for petrol automotive use in Germany is 55.8 TWh per year.

Taking an overall efficiency for an electric vehicle to be 80% (electricity transmission losses, battery charging efficiency) replacing the petrol vehicles with electric vehicles would require 70 TWh per year.

What proportion of the diesel is for automotive use against road or rail transport is not obvious. Suggesting a total of 100TWh for the annual automotive consumption seems reasonable.

If all the diesel consumers were replaced by electric vehicles the annual electricity consumption would increase by around 220 TWh per year.

 Currently Germany produces around 600 TWh of electricity annually.
www.cleanenergywire.org/.../germanys-energy-consumption-and-power-mix-charts

 Increasing this to 700 TWH to allow for the charging of electric cars is not trivial, nor is the reinforcement of the distribution infrastructure. Increasing to 820 TWh to replace all fossil fuelled transport is probably impossible in the suggested time scales.


Is this a reasonable assessment or have I as usual dropped a 0 somewhere?


Best regards


Roger


  • The advantages of electric propulsion in urban traffic are clear, as are the advantages of combustion in terms of infrastructure and range. Hybrid systems using clean burn engines running optimally and using sustainable fuels, driving electric propulsion, offer the best of both worlds. 100% electric is a pipe dream. Millions of large vehicle batteries are also bad news.
  • Thanks for mentioning the batteries Alex! They are actually my biggest concern. If there was an electric car available with, say, supercapacitors with a 20 year life I'd buy one like a shot. (Assuming making each capacitor didn't involve digging up an acre of forest.)


    Personally I'd advocate moving from cars to mass transit - and before anyone who knows me can say "well you would say that, wouldn't you" I should explain that I chose to work in the rail industry because I think mass transit is an important solution to many environmental and other issues, not vice versa :)


    Regarding the demographic issue, I think we'd actually find that working practices would follow transportation changes without any political or other necessity for intervention. We've seen this happen already - the rise of mass transit caused people to move to urban centres, the rise of the car caused them to move out again (really noticeable through my career). It would be a brave person who would guess what will happen next.


    On a side issue from Malcolm Davies' point above, I'd strongly recommend working from home: having previously spent 25 years making a 40 mile round trip every day to work, it's been wonderful for the last 2 1/2 years making a round trip to the station (to HQ or to clients) just once a fortnight on average. As a subject for another thread, the only actual problem I've found is that it's extremely difficult to mentor upcoming engineers in a home working environment. I'm not quite sure you mean Malcolm by "the inevitable domestic distractions", I can only say that a lot of people such as myself find you can get far more done at home than in an office, particularly an open plan office.


    Coming back to the original question: if electric cars had exchangeable battery packs then it would be feasible to be charging one pack from local solar power at home or work while using another pack (I'm assuming most driving is during daylight). Voila, no extra load (or at least reduced extra load) on the wider infrastructure.


    Cheers,


    Andy