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CORONA Virus. and why the PANIC Virus
CliveS 11001210881
66 Posts
SALUTE Cuba, they have allowed an infected ship to visit their island and keep their economy going.  This nonsense about a pandemic is a conspiracy from the insurance companies to avoid claims, and capitalist profit making organisation that rely on ignorance of most normal citizens.  The stats of Cuba infection rates will be critical in limiting more messing up by panicking   politicians, who are protecting themselves by saying their health systems don't have enough ventilators to meet the crisis.
31 Replies
Simon Barker 22060613
616 Posts
I think it will be nearly finished sometime around Q1 2021, once there's a vaccine in mass production.
Until then the economy will slowly limp back into life as more businesses open again.  Public transport will be a problem, as public transport and social distancing doesn't work.  It's been estimated that the London tube would have to run at 15% of normal capacity to maintain distancing, and no amount of shift working can achieve that.
Surveys are showing that people want to go to the garden centre, but still want to avoid places like pubs where people gather.
CliveS 11001210881
66 Posts
Well its nearly finished as we will still get little peaks as cities and care homes become infected. But governments must prioritise in doing what is for the common good and support the economy so our standard of living is maintained.  Study the government statistics as follows :-  
The Office of National Statistics issues figures for deaths in the UK.   These show that in March this year 49,723 people died.   The number that died in March 2019 was only 43,946 so we can see that some 6,000 extra people died presumably of the Covid19 virus during last month or about 200 per day.  Assuming the average stay for Covid19 patients could be around a week for people under retirement age as typified by  the PM
NHS sitrep report shows the number of available Intensive care beds in UK for February was 4,122 of which 3,359 were occupied leaving 763 spare which would be sufficient if the government issues an edit stating that people over retirement age should self isolate, as if they fall ill there is no guarantee that a ICU bed will be available as NHS have been instructed to prioritise ICU beds for young and working age patients.  So it looks like the Nightingale beds may never need to be used if a vaccine becomes available quickly. 
Thus, the children and working population can return to work but maintain social distancing.  To stop overcrowding in the rush hour only shops, businesses and factories that are prepared to adopt a 2 shift system should be allowed to open in town/city centres.  By adopting a shift system of 7am to 2pm and 1pm to  8pm we can split the travel peak into 3 parts but probably still insist on the wearing of a mask where passengers are within a metre of someone else,  
CliveS 11001210881
66 Posts
Well, the major outbreak is nearly finished but we will still get little peaks as cities and care homes become infected. But governments must prioritise in doing what is for the common good and support the economy so our standard of living is maintained.  Study the government statistics as follows :-  
The Office of National Statistics issues figures for deaths in the UK.   These show that in March this year 49,723 people died.   The number that died in March 2019 was only 43,946 so we can see that some 6,000 extra people died presumably of the Covid19 virus during last month or about 200 per day.  Assuming the average stay for Covid19 patients could be around a week for people under retirement age as typified by  the PM
NHS sitrep report shows the number of available Intensive care beds in UK for February was 4,122 of which 3,359 were occupied leaving 763 spare which would be sufficient if the government issues an edit stating that people over retirement age should self isolate, as if they fall ill there is no guarantee that a ICU bed will be available as NHS have been instructed to prioritise ICU beds for young and working age patients.  So it looks like the Nightingale beds may never need to be used if a vaccine becomes available quickly. 
Thus, the children and working population can return to work but maintain social distancing.  To stop overcrowding in the rush hour only shops, businesses and factories that are prepared to adopt a 2 shift system should be allowed to open in town/city centres.  By adopting a shift system of 7am to 2pm and 1pm to  8pm we can split the travel peak into 3 parts but probably still insist on the wearing of a mask where passengers are within a metre of someone else,  
Andy Millar 33788107
1673 Posts
The point is, I'm not unusual. I'm at no more risk than a very large percentage of users of this forum. Which is why the current measures are in place. So that's sorted then.

For advice on wire sizing, protective measures and earthing arrangements for electrical installations I suggest we look to IET members. For advice on preventing the spread of an epidemic I suggest we look to epidemiologists. It is as dangerous for us to give advice on covid-19 measures as it is for an epidemiologist to give advice on house wiring based on their GCSE Physics.

HOW we continue to work in the lockdown situation is of course a perfectly reasonable subject for debate!

Andy
CliveS 11001210881
66 Posts
Andy you should self isolate immediately and pray that a vaccine is available quickly as advised in my third reply below....     "
  "Let God decide who lives and who dies and pray that panicking politicians will do what is for the common good of the nation."
To keep the life of the nation ticking over we need to give priority to the use the ventilators for those most critical to the economy such as young sewage workers, health care workers etc but not cause great stress and hardships by closing down everything; thus increasing unemployment resulting in financial instability and rampant inflation.
But do please keep away from crowds and the over 70's as they will be low on the list for the use of NHS ventilators if they get covid19 which is why they will most probably choose to self isolate.
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Andy Millar 33788107
1673 Posts
As far I can tell, as a past asthmatic and having a mild heart condition my chances of dying from covid 10 if I catch it in the next year are somewhere between 1 in 5 and 1 in 20. (And I'm actually reasonably fit and below retirement age.)

To put this into perspective, my odds of dying as a passenger on the UK rail network last year were somewhere in the order of 1 in 10,000,000. But because those odds are seen as unacceptable in UK society myself and my colleagues are kept very fully employed trying to improve them. 

We are at an extraordinarily high level of risk at present. Just because most of us in the UK haven't seen levels of risk anywhere near approaching this magnitude in our lifetime doesn't stop it being real.

Bottom line: WITH the restrictions in place we have seen DOUBLE the usual death rate in the UK this month. I hate to think where that would have been if they hadn't been in place.

 Andy
One of the big assumptions is that everyone on board the ship was infected and only 711 showed symptoms, but the reality is that they tested nearly everyone but only 712 were infected. With an understanding of how people mingle on a cruise ship and how quickly they were put in isolation then this figure seems about right to me. This means that your death rate needs to increase by a factor of about 5 or 6.
The idea that 90% of deaths will be over retirement age is also not supported by the statistics. In Scotland which has just published details of deaths from Covid-19 up to 12 April more than 30% of deaths have been of people aged below 65.
Alasdair
Simon Barker 22060613
616 Posts

So deaths due to COVID19 are about 30 in 10,000 of which 90% will be over retiring age and not 3.4% nonsense from WHO. More like 3 in 10,000. which NHS can easily manage.  What do you think?

I think you're making a lot of assumptions to come to the conclusion you want to see. 
CliveS 11001210881
66 Posts
Just checked through all your replies and noticed that the my critical reply about the Diamond Princess cruise ship is missing.  https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w          There were about 2700 passengers and 1000 crew when the covid19  virus; in Hong Kong a check on one person proved positive meaning that all passengers with no distancing or protection, sharing same rooms, food had been mingling together for a week at least, in an open bubble of 3711 people a statistical isolated island community.
So on the website https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  search down the nations list and find the ship.  Diamond Princess.  
So out of the 3700 infected only 711 developed symptoms of which 61+7 were serious active cases that needed ventilators of mostly elderly passengers  of which 12 died.  
So deaths due to COVID19 are about 30 in 10,000 of which 90% will be over retiring age and not 3.4% nonsense from WHO. More like 3 in 10,000. which NHS can easily manage.  What do you think?  
Very good, though rather reminiscent of one I remember from years ago to explain nuclear chain reactions. I suppose there is a link with the similarity in the number of fatalities.
Alasdair
Andy Millar 33788107
1673 Posts
I've only just caught up with this brilliant video from the Ohio dept of health...social distancing explained with ping pong balls and mousetraps!
https://twitter.com/OHdeptofhealth/status/1248249304600449024

Cheers,

Andy
Andy Millar 33788107
1673 Posts
The Imperial College modelling is pretty stark. I don't agree with everything the UK government is doing by any means, but at least they are listening to scientists and they are trying to stop people dying.



Chart showing the estimated death toll from coronavirus in different scenarios

CliveS:
most people under 60 will not even know that they have had the virus as the effects are minimal to the average fit person unless you have underlying medical  breathing problems.

Not true. There are many medical workers being over-exposed to the virus who are at least of average fitness and with no underlying medical problems (and they are in a position to know) and yet they are dying. If the virus is allowed to spread so that the majority have it then those who catch it later will have the same over-exposure from many around them and will be more likely to have complications.
Also bear in mind that the hospital workers are at a much higher risk of death due to the high virus exposure they encounter. We should not be ignoring their plight.

Simon Barker:

It might help if you didn't completely misrepresent the statistics that you are supposedly basing your post on.  According to that site, the death rate is about 1 in 500 for people under 40.  First, that's under 40's not under 60's.  Second, that's the death rate, not the number of people who needed hospital treatment, but then survived. 
Absolutely right, Simon. The death rate is about 50% of those who need Intensive Care, which itself is about 50% of those who need hospital treatment. Therefore about 1 in 125 people under 40 will need hospital treatment (call it 1% to make the sums easy). This means that if you infect at say 50% of those under 40 then 0.5% of the under 40s will die, or about 0.25% of the total population, and about 1% of the population will need hospital treatment. The is around 650,000 in hospital with around 160,000 deaths. Bear in mind that the advice was that if nothing was done, 80% could be infected so I have been conservative in the figures here.
 
CliveS 11001210881
66 Posts
NO, Simon that is totally incorrect.  For the people that paramedics take to hospital and are admitted the death rate is as you state. But most people under 60 will not even know that they have had the virus as the effects are minimal to the average fit person unless you have underlying medical  breathing problems.
Simon Barker 22060613
616 Posts

CliveS:
Have a look at the website     https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/              This age profile clearly shows that people over the age of 60 and anyone with breathing difficulties should self isolate.  However, children need to go to school and workers under the age of 60 should be encouraged to return to work using a mask, if unable to get a 2 metre separation, as even if they are the 1 in 5 that develop a temperature only less than 1 in 500 will need to go to hospital.
NOTE   The WHO advice was that the global community should take precautions to limit the effect of virus.  Lockdowns were never mentioned.

It might help if you didn't completely misrepresent the statistics that you are supposedly basing your post on.  According to that site, the death rate is about 1 in 500 for people under 40.  First, that's under 40's not under 60's.  Second, that's the death rate, not the number of people who needed hospital treatment, but then survived. 
 
CliveS 11001210881
66 Posts
Have a look at the website     https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/              This age profile clearly shows that people over the age of 60 and anyone with breathing difficulties should self isolate.  However, children need to go to school and workers under the age of 60 should be encouraged to return to work using a mask, if unable to get a 2 metre separation, as even if they are the 1 in 5 that develop a temperature only less than 1 in 500 will need to go to hospital.
NOTE   The WHO advice was that the global community should take precautions to limit the effect of virus.  Lockdowns were never mentioned.
mapj1 80733779
1925 Posts
I suspect for a lot of "desk only" jobs, that will work quite well.
But how many of us have a "desk only"  job ? They were supposed to be optimized away.
Simon Barker 22060613
616 Posts
I think many employers have suddenly discovered it.  My employer has been gathering together every laptop they can find, installing the VPN software and handing them to staff who normally work in the office.
Arran Cameron 1100402286
415 Posts

Andy Millar:

The big challenge is to get the majority of the population to accept that this is serious, we might be in this for the long haul, and that it might need some changes to how we work as a society.

The coronavirus raises the question: whatever happened to telecommuting? It was touted as the next big thing back in the 1990s but it didn't seem to materialise.

A few years ago a Job Centre advisor stated that they didn't have any telecommuting jobs on their database, and that the vast majority of jobs offered through the Job Centre require a physical presence in the workplace.

 
CliveS 11001210881
66 Posts
UK is not the only country trying to stop hospital admissions . We in New Zealand have the same sort of panic and a government 5 billion dollar package here will not in fact help Kiwis going out of work.
BUT our local church is praying that we will     "Let God decide who lives and who dies and pray that panicking politicians will do what is for the common good of the nation."
To keep the life of the nation ticking over we need to give priority to the use the ventilators for those most critical to the economy such as young sewage workers, health care workers etc but not cause great stress and hardships by closing down everything; thus increasing unemployment resulting in financial instability and rampant inflation.
But do please keep away from crowds and the over 70's as they will be low on the list for the use of NHS ventilators if they get covid19 which is why they will most probably choose to self isolate.
Arran Cameron 1100402286
415 Posts

CliveS:

NOTE.    If unemployment rises above 10% then devastating inflation is unavoidable

Another concern is that unemployment and poverty will result in a crime wave. There's a temptation to loot shops and businesses that have closed because of coronavirus, but later it could extend into violence and large scale arson.

The government hasn't seriously considered the effect of coronavirus on prisons and may be forced to (temporarily?) release prisoners to reduce the spread of the disease. This combined with court trials potentially shutting down and overstretched police could mean that many criminals get away scot free.
Arran Cameron 1100402286
415 Posts
Cancelling GCSE and A Level exams was not an intelligent move at this point in time.
CliveS 11001210881
66 Posts
Thanks everyone for your responses.   I agree that this is a pandemic and we all need to take extra care by distancing ourselves from other people, washing hands etc. BUT NOT PANIC which will wreck the economy whilst we are being extra careful. 
A sensible approach may be.
1]  Advise over 70's to be extra careful and try to avoid close contact with ordinary people as they are most at risk.
2] Ordinary people and children should be aware that they need to keep extra clean
3] Workers who can; should work at home without reduction in pay.
4] Workers who work in food, entertainment, hospitality, tourism etc. should be given masks and protective areas to work in where possible BUT not become unemployed and face most terrible hardships.
5] No projects, building works, should be delayed by the virus; just continue as carefully as possible to avoid contact with others
NOTE.    If unemployment rises above 10% then devastating inflation is unavoidable
CliveS

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