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CORONA Virus. and why the PANIC Virus
CliveS
94 Posts
SALUTE Cuba, they have allowed an infected ship to visit their island and keep their economy going.  This nonsense about a pandemic is a conspiracy from the insurance companies to avoid claims, and capitalist profit making organisation that rely on ignorance of most normal citizens.  The stats of Cuba infection rates will be critical in limiting more messing up by panicking   politicians, who are protecting themselves by saying their health systems don't have enough ventilators to meet the crisis.
41 Replies
Moshe W
496 Posts
Better safe than sorry.  I think people should take all the precautions.
To say this is a conspiracy is wrong.  Medical Dr or appropriately trained and educated in diseases control professionals and scientists  increasingly warn about this aggressive virus, rackless statements can
cause life-threatening damage.
Higher % of people who get sick from COVID 19 virus and die from it is high, this is an aggressive virus.
This is a pandemic no doubt about it.
Some professionals indicate that in areas with high temperatures and relatively high humidity the virus has hard time spreading this creates extremely unfavorable conditions for the virus.
Very high temperatures (>30°C) render the coronaviruses inactive.

Now if you check the weather in Havana Cuba you will see today there is 28.34 c and 75% humidity so this weather is making it hard for the COVID 19 virus to spread, but it still can.




 
Moshe,
I don't agree with your "Very high temperatures (>30°C) render the coronaviruses inactive" as the first location that is spread outside China was Singapore, which is practically on the equator and has a daytime temperature almost guaranteed to be above 30 every day of the year. It may make it harder to spread or even reduce its virulence (Singapore, despite being the most densely populated country in the world has only had 313 cases (as of today) but no deaths, though this may be as much due to their proactive contact tracing and excellent healthcare).
I do agree it is wrong to say it is a conspiracy. I also agree it is wrong to say it is not a pandemic as by any definition I have seen it fits what we see, and the WHO in calling it a pandemic are only stating what we all know. All we can do is wait and see what happens next and hope that as the weather gets warmer it slows the spread..
Moshe W
496 Posts
Alasdair,

For the "Very high temperatures (>30°C) render the coronaviruses inactive" I was just saying that some professionals in the field claim this.
So I agree, this is not a definitive statement.

Not arguing if this is pandemic or not.  In my opinion of nonprofessional in this field of disease control this appears to be at least like a pandemic.
Very sad and frightening.

"Italy ordered the army to move bodies from a northern town at the center of the coronavirus outbreak where funeral services have been overwhelmed as the government prepared to prolong emergency lockdown measures across the country.

An army spokesman confirmed on Thursday that 15 trucks and 50 soldiers had been deployed to move bodies to neighboring provinces. Earlier local authorities in Bergamo had appealed for help with cremations after they had overwhelmed its crematorium."

 


 
Moshe,
I agree it is very sad and frightening. I get the impression that most countries (and I include the UK and USA in this) have been too slow to react.
Keep well,
Alasdair
As with all subjects I'm not an educated in (and there's a lot), its best to seek out experts in the field. A good source of links for this subject is the Bill Gates Foundation website. Here they list numerous papers and scientific results of data taken by the professionals. Please follow the link below to find answers to your questions on COVID-19:

https://www.gatesfoundation.org/TheOptimist/coronavirus


Hope this helps. Stay safe
Andy Millar
1749 Posts
I must admit that when this all started I made the mistake of confusing this with, say, flu, and couldn't see what the panic was about. The problem at the moment is that the death rate is much higher than flu, and that there isn't a vaccine. So for the moment it's a case of trying not to overwhelm the medical facilities until a vaccine can be made available.

Data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ which comes from WHO data gives the probability of dying from an infection for those aged 80+ as 15-20%. Since I have close relatives who are that age (and who are not fit for other reasons) those aren't odds I particularly like. 

Or to take another angle - Western governments do not trash their economies without incredibly good reason. In the UK the people who are going to be worse hit are largely the core target voters for the current government: the self employed, the entrepreneurs, and the retired. When a government puts its main supporters out of work, or suggests locking them in their houses for three months, it's probably time to accept that something serious is going on.

The big challenge is to get the majority of the population to accept that this is serious, we might be in this for the long haul, and that it might need some changes to how we work as a society.

Andy  
CliveS
94 Posts
Thanks everyone for your responses.   I agree that this is a pandemic and we all need to take extra care by distancing ourselves from other people, washing hands etc. BUT NOT PANIC which will wreck the economy whilst we are being extra careful. 
A sensible approach may be.
1]  Advise over 70's to be extra careful and try to avoid close contact with ordinary people as they are most at risk.
2] Ordinary people and children should be aware that they need to keep extra clean
3] Workers who can; should work at home without reduction in pay.
4] Workers who work in food, entertainment, hospitality, tourism etc. should be given masks and protective areas to work in where possible BUT not become unemployed and face most terrible hardships.
5] No projects, building works, should be delayed by the virus; just continue as carefully as possible to avoid contact with others
NOTE.    If unemployment rises above 10% then devastating inflation is unavoidable
CliveS
Arran Cameron
433 Posts
Cancelling GCSE and A Level exams was not an intelligent move at this point in time.
Arran Cameron
433 Posts

CliveS:

NOTE.    If unemployment rises above 10% then devastating inflation is unavoidable

Another concern is that unemployment and poverty will result in a crime wave. There's a temptation to loot shops and businesses that have closed because of coronavirus, but later it could extend into violence and large scale arson.

The government hasn't seriously considered the effect of coronavirus on prisons and may be forced to (temporarily?) release prisoners to reduce the spread of the disease. This combined with court trials potentially shutting down and overstretched police could mean that many criminals get away scot free.
CliveS
94 Posts
UK is not the only country trying to stop hospital admissions . We in New Zealand have the same sort of panic and a government 5 billion dollar package here will not in fact help Kiwis going out of work.
BUT our local church is praying that we will     "Let God decide who lives and who dies and pray that panicking politicians will do what is for the common good of the nation."
To keep the life of the nation ticking over we need to give priority to the use the ventilators for those most critical to the economy such as young sewage workers, health care workers etc but not cause great stress and hardships by closing down everything; thus increasing unemployment resulting in financial instability and rampant inflation.
But do please keep away from crowds and the over 70's as they will be low on the list for the use of NHS ventilators if they get covid19 which is why they will most probably choose to self isolate.
Arran Cameron
433 Posts

Andy Millar:

The big challenge is to get the majority of the population to accept that this is serious, we might be in this for the long haul, and that it might need some changes to how we work as a society.

The coronavirus raises the question: whatever happened to telecommuting? It was touted as the next big thing back in the 1990s but it didn't seem to materialise.

A few years ago a Job Centre advisor stated that they didn't have any telecommuting jobs on their database, and that the vast majority of jobs offered through the Job Centre require a physical presence in the workplace.

 
Simon Barker
803 Posts
I think many employers have suddenly discovered it.  My employer has been gathering together every laptop they can find, installing the VPN software and handing them to staff who normally work in the office.
mapj1
2834 Posts
I suspect for a lot of "desk only" jobs, that will work quite well.
But how many of us have a "desk only"  job ? They were supposed to be optimized away.
CliveS
94 Posts
Have a look at the website     https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/              This age profile clearly shows that people over the age of 60 and anyone with breathing difficulties should self isolate.  However, children need to go to school and workers under the age of 60 should be encouraged to return to work using a mask, if unable to get a 2 metre separation, as even if they are the 1 in 5 that develop a temperature only less than 1 in 500 will need to go to hospital.
NOTE   The WHO advice was that the global community should take precautions to limit the effect of virus.  Lockdowns were never mentioned.
Simon Barker
803 Posts

CliveS:
Have a look at the website     https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/              This age profile clearly shows that people over the age of 60 and anyone with breathing difficulties should self isolate.  However, children need to go to school and workers under the age of 60 should be encouraged to return to work using a mask, if unable to get a 2 metre separation, as even if they are the 1 in 5 that develop a temperature only less than 1 in 500 will need to go to hospital.
NOTE   The WHO advice was that the global community should take precautions to limit the effect of virus.  Lockdowns were never mentioned.

It might help if you didn't completely misrepresent the statistics that you are supposedly basing your post on.  According to that site, the death rate is about 1 in 500 for people under 40.  First, that's under 40's not under 60's.  Second, that's the death rate, not the number of people who needed hospital treatment, but then survived. 
 
CliveS
94 Posts
NO, Simon that is totally incorrect.  For the people that paramedics take to hospital and are admitted the death rate is as you state. But most people under 60 will not even know that they have had the virus as the effects are minimal to the average fit person unless you have underlying medical  breathing problems.

Simon Barker:

It might help if you didn't completely misrepresent the statistics that you are supposedly basing your post on.  According to that site, the death rate is about 1 in 500 for people under 40.  First, that's under 40's not under 60's.  Second, that's the death rate, not the number of people who needed hospital treatment, but then survived. 
Absolutely right, Simon. The death rate is about 50% of those who need Intensive Care, which itself is about 50% of those who need hospital treatment. Therefore about 1 in 125 people under 40 will need hospital treatment (call it 1% to make the sums easy). This means that if you infect at say 50% of those under 40 then 0.5% of the under 40s will die, or about 0.25% of the total population, and about 1% of the population will need hospital treatment. The is around 650,000 in hospital with around 160,000 deaths. Bear in mind that the advice was that if nothing was done, 80% could be infected so I have been conservative in the figures here.
 
Also bear in mind that the hospital workers are at a much higher risk of death due to the high virus exposure they encounter. We should not be ignoring their plight.

CliveS:
most people under 60 will not even know that they have had the virus as the effects are minimal to the average fit person unless you have underlying medical  breathing problems.

Not true. There are many medical workers being over-exposed to the virus who are at least of average fitness and with no underlying medical problems (and they are in a position to know) and yet they are dying. If the virus is allowed to spread so that the majority have it then those who catch it later will have the same over-exposure from many around them and will be more likely to have complications.
Andy Millar
1749 Posts
The Imperial College modelling is pretty stark. I don't agree with everything the UK government is doing by any means, but at least they are listening to scientists and they are trying to stop people dying.



Chart showing the estimated death toll from coronavirus in different scenarios
Andy Millar
1749 Posts
I've only just caught up with this brilliant video from the Ohio dept of health...social distancing explained with ping pong balls and mousetraps!
https://twitter.com/OHdeptofhealth/status/1248249304600449024

Cheers,

Andy
Very good, though rather reminiscent of one I remember from years ago to explain nuclear chain reactions. I suppose there is a link with the similarity in the number of fatalities.
Alasdair
CliveS
94 Posts
Just checked through all your replies and noticed that the my critical reply about the Diamond Princess cruise ship is missing.  https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w          There were about 2700 passengers and 1000 crew when the covid19  virus; in Hong Kong a check on one person proved positive meaning that all passengers with no distancing or protection, sharing same rooms, food had been mingling together for a week at least, in an open bubble of 3711 people a statistical isolated island community.
So on the website https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  search down the nations list and find the ship.  Diamond Princess.  
So out of the 3700 infected only 711 developed symptoms of which 61+7 were serious active cases that needed ventilators of mostly elderly passengers  of which 12 died.  
So deaths due to COVID19 are about 30 in 10,000 of which 90% will be over retiring age and not 3.4% nonsense from WHO. More like 3 in 10,000. which NHS can easily manage.  What do you think?  
Simon Barker
803 Posts

So deaths due to COVID19 are about 30 in 10,000 of which 90% will be over retiring age and not 3.4% nonsense from WHO. More like 3 in 10,000. which NHS can easily manage.  What do you think?

I think you're making a lot of assumptions to come to the conclusion you want to see. 
One of the big assumptions is that everyone on board the ship was infected and only 711 showed symptoms, but the reality is that they tested nearly everyone but only 712 were infected. With an understanding of how people mingle on a cruise ship and how quickly they were put in isolation then this figure seems about right to me. This means that your death rate needs to increase by a factor of about 5 or 6.
The idea that 90% of deaths will be over retirement age is also not supported by the statistics. In Scotland which has just published details of deaths from Covid-19 up to 12 April more than 30% of deaths have been of people aged below 65.
Alasdair

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