I would hope that we don't get multiple waves in the long term.  Anyone who is at high risk will be vaccinated against COVID-19.  Governments should be quicker at responding to any new disease outbreaks.  The quicker you respond to a disease outbreak, the less chance it has to spread.

Hello Simon:


We all hope for the better but we better plan now for the worse.


We may or may not be able to develop a vaccine that is good for "life". Just consider that the annual flu vaccine is just a guess as to what will be circulating over the next season. The past flu shot was (based on the latest published data) only 50% efficient as sometimes the strain changes over one season. Here in the US we have a high dose version of the Flu vaccine for people over 65. However you have to ask specifically for it as it cost much more than the regular dose.


I was looking for ideas concerning what has to change now to protect the general population from spreading future pandemics.


As I highlighted in my original message "ride sharing" is in trouble.


However what about the current practice of building bigger and bigger transportation systems (planes and cruise ships) with higher and higher packing density that gives a virus more opportunities to rapid;y spread itself?


Peter Brooks MIET

Palm Bay Florida USA

The biggest problem is going to be packed mass transit systems.

It's been reported here that for the London tube to observe proper social distancing measures, the capacity would have to be reduced to 15% of what it is now.  Which isn't really practical.

Hello Simon


I am fully aware of the London Underground rush hour problem having been born and lived there.


Let look at the root cause of the problem-- Too many people trying to get to the same small area of the City at the same time.


Some of the solutions:- 

Time shift workers start and stop times to extend the length of the rush hour (flattening the curve in pandemic terms).


Here in the US things tend to start earlier (for example food shops open at 7 am and close at 10.00 pm) with employee times staggered. Some employees go in at 7 am, 8 am 9 am and 10 am.  

We currently food shop (special hour for seniors) at 7.00 am.


Another solution is to disperse the main offices to remote multiple locations around London with good transport connections (examples Hammersmith, Barking etc) and use upgraded communications between them.


It may surprise you to know that  at one time manufacturing in London was concentrated around the perimeter but not in the center of the city. This could be done for the service industry.


The third solution is for most people to work from home.


Peter Brooks MIET

Palm Bay Florida USA


  

 

I think you are posing a very important question Peter. We can hope that Governments, Universities, Economic Consultancies and associated lobby groups plus any non-government Bodies with 'skin in the game' are all setting up study groups to inform future plans.


Briefly I would observe that we need two areas of concentration namely:


1.) Seek to support, continue and improve internet based communications systems to enable the growth of good quality 'mixed mode' remote working, including transfer of centralise office arrangements to regional 'communications hubs' for those for whom 'home working' is not practical.


2.) Seek to continue to address measures and long term studies to more fully understand and thus limit 'man made fuelling' of climate change, including a more efficient use of all costly, scarce 'enabling technologies' such as lithium, cobalt, copper, and associated 'rare earth' (magnetic) technologies. E.G. Better for us all to 'share' these scarce resources between, say, one Million Pedal Assist Bikes, and Tuc-Tucs than concentrate the same resources on the manufacture of just 6250 'grossly inefficient' battery electric cars. (64KWh BEV/0.4KWh E-Bicycle = 160 and One million divided by 160 = 6250)


Fortunately, the implementation of 1.) will actually directly support and assist the pursuit and achievement of 2.) through a significant reduction in 'unneccessary' fossil fuelled road traffic. Widespread (global) implementation of programmes to enable 1.) and 2.) will also help to change our bad habits by the removal of the inexorable 'societal pressure' for every man and woman on the planet to drive round in a 1600 Kg Sports Utility Vehicle (whether BEV, Hydrogen or Fossil Fuelled) !

Hello Malcolm:


Since I last responded to this topic earlier this year the current pandemic situation has reached another stage with (1) attempts to restart the economy (including schools) and (2) social rebellion due to psychological fatigue.


Attempts to restart the economy by the Political leadership (in order to prevent a complete financial meltdown), has been very difficult due personal fear of being infected by an "unseen" foe.


Regarding the problem of psychological fatigue I observed a similar situation during the bombing of London during WWII, where after a short period of time the population of London stopped seeking shelter and the concept of "If it is my time to die, so be it" developed.

However in a war the foe is fully defined.


Peter Brooks MIET

Palm Bay Florida USA

Hello Simon:-

As regards transportation options with/or after the CoVID-19 pandemic coupled with the need to reduce atmospheric CO2 to control climate change, I have the following personal observations:-

I have been retired for close to 20 years and live in a semi-rural part of Central Florida.


Each year at this time we prepare for our hurricane season. Besides the storage of food and water in my house we have to consider the ramification of being hit by a CAT 3 or 4+ hurricane eye wall. This has happened at least 3 times  over the past 50 years. I am aware from past hurricanes that my house will stand 110 mph winds. Anything above that we evacuate somewhere (?)  

Previous hurricanes have (1) shut down wireless towers (2) Eliminated electrical power for a week (3) shut down distribution of gas (petrol) delivery tankers and gas(petrol) and diesel stations (4) food stores.

So it is important to have some form of transportation to get one to safety.

There are no passenger trains, planes stop flying well before the hurricane, and local buses also stop operation.

Depending on the size of the approaching storm one may have to travel 200-300 miles out of it's path.

Thus any transportation system must have a range of 250 miles without the need of refilling.

During one of last years storms Tesla downloaded software into it's cars to extend the maximum mileage that could be obtained. How they were able to extend this range I never found out.


Peter Brooks MIET

Palm Bay Florida USA





 

Good afternoon:

If anyone is interested in following Atlantic hurricanes (which I look at at least twice a day) go to nhc.noaa.gov/?atic - there are links to satellite and radar information.


There is one missing transportation option here in Florida -that is allowed on some (low speed) public roads, when they have a full lighting system and are tagged/insured --  electric golf carts. 


Push bikes have become very popular during this pandemic for exercise. They are not normally used for transportation by adults except for the homeless or for people who have lost their driving licenses.  The reason for this is again the weather. Most summer days we get spot thunderstorms with dangerous lightening, high winds and heavy rain (1-3 inches). 


By the way in California last week, because of the massive fires and high heat, the power grid was being over loaded and owners of electric cars were asked not to charge their cars in the early evening.


Peter Brooks MIET

Palm Bay Florida USA